The certainty versus the severity of punishment, repeat offenders, and stigmatization

- A two-period law enforcement model is considered.
- p and s respectively denote the certainty and the severity of punishment.
- When repeat offenses are possible, deterrence can be more responsive to p than s.
- Results hold regardless of whether convictions lead to stigmatization.
- Results follow even if people are slightly risk-averse.

There is a widely held presumption among criminologists that the certainty of punishment p is a greater deterrent than the severity of punishment (s). This presumption is at odds with recent experimental work as well as the implications of simple law enforcement models. This article shows that when offenses may be committed repeatedly, p may have a greater deterrent effect than s, even when each individual offender is more responsive to sthan p. This resolves the discrepancy between experimental results and the common belief held among criminologists.