A re-examination of maturity effect of energy futures price from the perspective of stochastic volatility

- This paper selects stochastic volatility (SV) as the uncertainty or volatility measure to re-examine the Samuelson hypothesis.
- Stochastic dominance is employed to examine if the SV level dominates with respect to maturity.
- Energy futures price series give mild support to this hypothesis in terms of the first two orders of stochastic dominance.
- The hypothesis is more likely to hold at low SV levels.
- The higher the volatility level, the less likely the hypothesis will hold because SV surges to its peak level regardless of maturity.

This paper selects stochastic volatility (SV) as the uncertainty or volatility measure to re-examine the Samuelson hypothesis of maturity effect (SHME) (Samuelson, 1965). Stochastic dominance is used to examine whether the stochastic volatility level dominates with respect to maturity. The empirical analyses of energy-futures price series generally provide mild support for this hypothesis in terms of the first two degrees of stochastic dominance. Each type of futures has its own properties with respect to the maturity effect. SV levels play a role in determining the testing outcome. The hypothesis is more likely to hold at low SV levels. The higher the volatility level, the less likely the SHME will hold because SV surges to its peak level regardless of maturity.