کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5064436 1476718 2014 16 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Can agent-based models forecast spot prices in electricity markets? Evidence from the New Zealand electricity market
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
آیا مدل های مبتنی بر عامل پیش بینی قیمت های نقطه در بازارهای برق پیش بینی می شود؟ شواهد موجود در بازار برق نیوزیلند؟
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی

Modelling price formation in electricity markets is a notoriously difficult process, due to physical constraints on electricity generation and transmission, and the potential for market power. This difficulty has inspired the recent development of bottom-up agent-based algorithmic learning models of electricity markets. While these have proven quite successful in small models, few authors have attempted any validation of their model against real-world data in a more realistic model. In this paper we develop the SWEM model, where we take one of the most promising algorithms from the literature, a modified version of the Roth and Erev algorithm, and apply it to a 19-node simplification of the New Zealand electricity market. Once key variables such as water storage are accounted for, we show that our model can closely mimic short-run (weekly) electricity prices at these 19 nodes, given fundamental inputs such as fuel costs, network data, and demand. We show that agents in SWEM are able to manipulate market power when a line outage makes them an effective monopolist in the market. SWEM has already been applied to a wide variety of policy applications in the New Zealand market.2

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Economics - Volume 45, September 2014, Pages 419-434
نویسندگان
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