Do FOMC forecasts add value to staff forecasts?

- Fed Bank presidents forecast greater inflation risks than the Board of Governors.
- Presidents add value to staff real economy forecasts.
- Governors add value to staff inflation forecasts.
- FOMC forecast assessment should consider President and Governor forecasts separately.

This paper compares the economic forecasts of members of the Board of Governors and presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, and then investigates the value of each group's forecasts in supplementing the forecasts of the Board of Governors' staff. We find that the presidents tend to forecast higher inflation and real GDP growth, and lower unemployment than the members of the Board of Governors. We also find that the presidents' real GDP and unemployment rate forecasts add value to the real economy forecasts of the staff, while the governors' inflation forecasts add value to the staff's inflation forecasts.