کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5090455 1375632 2011 9 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Can broker-dealer client surveys provide signals for debt investing?
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Can broker-dealer client surveys provide signals for debt investing?
چکیده انگلیسی

We use a novel data set to study return predictability in debt markets. The data are collected from J.P. Morgan's periodic surveys on its clients' outlook for changes in US Treasury yields and corporate credit spreads. We document that simple signals constructed from such surveys predict excess returns on debt portfolios formed on the basis of duration (2-years minus zero) or credit quality (BBB minus AAA). A linear trading strategy placing equal weight on Treasury and Credit signals has an annualized Information Ratio equal to 1.18, before transaction costs. We also show that predictability is likely to stem from private information possessed by survey respondents rather than from risk premia.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance - Volume 35, Issue 5, May 2011, Pages 1170-1178
نویسندگان
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