کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5096267 | 1376515 | 2013 | 14 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Large time-varying parameter VARs
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
ریاضیات
آمار و احتمال
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Large time-varying parameter VARs Large time-varying parameter VARs](/preview/png/5096267.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
In this paper, we develop methods for estimation and forecasting in large time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs). To overcome computational constraints, we draw on ideas from the dynamic model averaging literature which achieve reductions in the computational burden through the use forgetting factors. We then extend the TVP-VARÂ so that its dimension can change over time. For instance, we can have a large TVP-VAR as the forecasting model at some points in time, but a smaller TVP-VAR at others. A final extension lies in the development of a new method for estimating, in a time-varying manner, the parameter(s)Â of the shrinkage priors commonly-used with large VARs. These extensions are operationalized through the use of forgetting factor methods and are, thus, computationally simple. An empirical application involving forecasting inflation, real output and interest rates demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of our approach.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Econometrics - Volume 177, Issue 2, December 2013, Pages 185-198
Journal: Journal of Econometrics - Volume 177, Issue 2, December 2013, Pages 185-198
نویسندگان
Gary Koop, Dimitris Korobilis,