کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5096892 | 1376556 | 2010 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
ریاضیات
آمار و احتمال
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
When location shifts occur, cointegration-based equilibrium-correction models (EqCMs) face forecasting problems. We consider alleviating such forecast failure by updating, intercept corrections, differencing, and estimating the future progress of an 'internal' break. Updating leads to a loss of cointegration when an EqCM suffers an equilibrium-mean shift, but helps when collinearities are changed by an 'external' break with the EqCM staying constant. Both mechanistic corrections help compared to retaining a pre-break estimated model, but an estimated model of the break process could outperform. We apply the approaches to EqCMs for UK M1, compared with updating a learning function as the break evolves.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Econometrics - Volume 158, Issue 1, September 2010, Pages 25-36
Journal: Journal of Econometrics - Volume 158, Issue 1, September 2010, Pages 25-36
نویسندگان
Jennifer L. Castle, Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, David F. Hendry,