کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5097411 | 1376587 | 2007 | 36 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: Some theory and empirics
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
ریاضیات
آمار و احتمال
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper explores ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We describe a general framework that includes both model averaging methods as well as some measures that describe whether policies and their consequences are model dependent. These general ideas are then applied to assess simple monetary policy rules for some standard New Keynesian specifications. We conclude that the original Taylor rule has good robustness properties, but may reasonably be challenged in overall quality with respect to stabilization by alternative simple rules, even when these rules employ parameters that are set without accounting for model uncertainty.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Econometrics - Volume 136, Issue 2, February 2007, Pages 629-664
Journal: Journal of Econometrics - Volume 136, Issue 2, February 2007, Pages 629-664
نویسندگان
William A. Brock, Steven N. Durlauf, Kenneth D. West,