کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5103656 1480527 2017 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The causal effects of regional industrial policies on employment: A synthetic control approach
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
اثرات علمی سیاست های صنعتی منطقه ای بر اشتغال: یک روش کنترل مصنوعی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
Industrial policies affecting entire sectors in regions, provinces, or districts can account for large portions of sub-national government spending. Yet because of the methodological challenges related to the identification of a counterfactual when a single unit is treated, the causal effects of these policies on the growth of the industry, or specifically on employment, are seldom identified. We adopt a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) approach to analyze the long-term impact on employment of the Tourism Development Policy (TDP) implemented by the Argentinean province of Salta. We find an 11 percent average annual impact over 10 years on employment in the hospitality sector, which translated in an accumulated impact of 1376 formal jobs in the tourism value-chain. We also find that this growth did not happen at the expenses of other industries and that TDP generated positive inter-industry employment spillovers/externalities. For each job created in the tourism value-chain, an additional job was created in the rest of the provincial economy, which resulted in a total creation of 2750 formal jobs. Our results are robust across a series of placebo tests and sensitivity checks and are consistent among alternative synthetic control units.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Regional Science and Urban Economics - Volume 67, November 2017, Pages 25-41
نویسندگان
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