کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5109746 1377718 2016 5 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
نگرانی از خطر در بازار پیش بینی: یک آزمایش فریم زمینه ای
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
چکیده انگلیسی
To make better decisions today, companies and other economic agents are interested in getting accurate predictions of future events. Prediction markets can, at least potentially, give those accurate forecasts for the probability of the event by aggregating information from traders. However, formal studies highlight that the risk attitudes of market participants may bias the market equilibrium prices, and consequently make the prediction unreliable. This research examines the effect of participants' risk attitudes on prediction market prices, through a framed field experiment on the two semifinals at the 2015 NCAA Men's Division Basketball Tournament. The results of the experiment show a significant price difference between the risk-averse group and the less risk-averse group. The large price discrepancy between markets with participants with varying risk aversion suggests that risk aversion deserves a critical consideration in future prediction-market research and implementation.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Business Research - Volume 69, Issue 11, November 2016, Pages 5071-5075
نویسندگان
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