کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5115113 1484600 2017 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
برنامه ریزی برای انعطاف پذیری جامعه به آینده نیاز داخلی آب ایالات متحده
کلمات کلیدی
تقاضای آب، آب و هوا، پایداری، انعطاف پذیری،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک بوم شناسی، تکامل، رفتار و سامانه شناسی
چکیده انگلیسی
Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching water managers' abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistical modeling on past and present water use, we project domestic water demand in the context of four climate scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as part of the their Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We compare 2010 demand to projections of domestic water demand for the years 2030, 2060 and 2090 for the four SRES scenarios. Results indicate that the number of counties exceeding fifty percent or greater demand over 2010 levels increases through 2090 for two of the scenarios and plateaus around 2050 for the other two. Counties experiencing the largest increases in water demand are concentrated in the states of California, Texas, and isolated portions of the Mid-West, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Closer examination of the spatial distribution of high demand counties reveals that they are typically found near or adjacent to metropolitan centers, potentially placing greater stress on already taxed systems. Identifying these counties allows for targeted adaptive management and policies, economic incentives, and legislation to be focused towards locations that are potentially the most vulnerable.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Landscape and Urban Planning - Volume 158, February 2017, Pages 75-86
نویسندگان
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