A new combined solution model to predict water cut in water flooding hydrocarbon reservoirs

Oil production prediction model and water flooding characteristic curves are generally applied to production performance analysis. However, these two methods have some limitations especially in predicting water cut. Growth model can predict oil production and cumulative oil production, but it cannot predict water cut. Water flooding characteristic curves can predict water cut and cumulative oil production, but it cannot establish the relationship between production indexes and time. The Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) growth model is a kind of production prediction model. This study analyzed features of MMF growth model, then Hu-Chen (HC) model was deduced on the base of MMF growth model. Theoretical basis of HC model was improved and solution of parameters was simplified. Then combining it with water flooding characteristic curve, a new combined solution model was built. This new combined solution model can predict water cut versus time and it overcame deficiencies of production prediction model and water flooding characteristic curves. The applications of field case selected from the Block-A in Daqing Oilfield indicated that the prediction accuracy of this new combining model can meet the demand of production performance analysis and it can guide the determination and adjustment of the development programs in water flooding hydrocarbon reservoirs. It has features of higher prediction accuracy, easier to use and widely practicable compared with other combined models.