Sensitivity analysis of a predictive model for the fire behaviour of a sandwich panel

A sensitivity analysis to assumptions and input variables is carried out for a predictive model previously developed [1] for the fire response of a glass-fibre/polyester panel and a glass-fibre/polyester-Vermiculux sandwich. It is an unsteady, one-dimensional model using the porous medium approximation and a constant gas pressure with two-step, finite rate kinetics for the thermal decomposition and combustion of the polymeric resin, moisture evaporation described by an Arrhenius rate law, heat and mass transfer by convection, heat conduction and radiation described by effective thermal conductivities, variation of the volumetric fractions of the polymeric resin and the moisture with the conversion degree, effective specific heats, external heat transfer resistances and surface ablation. The strongest impact on the model predictions is exerted by the imposed external heat flux with variations on the characteristic process times between 49 and 774%. An important role in sample heating/conversion is also played by surface ablation and/or external heat transfer resistance with variations up to 30-72% or, when ablation is disregarded, with temperatures along the core layer well below those of the degrading skin. These are also significantly affected by surface heat losses, with the assumption of adiabatic bottom surface leading to heterogeneous ignition of the lower skin, and evaporation of moisture with variations in the characteristic times up to 35%. The model for the effective thermal conductivity of the fibre-reinforced skin (the Parallel, the Maxwell-Eucken and the Effective Medium Theory models versus the Series model) is also important resulting in characteristic time variations up to 35%. The absence of local thermal equilibrium between the condensed and the gas/vapour phase and the kinetic details of the polymer reactions are comparatively less important (maximum diminution in the characteristic times of 16%). Moreover, although over-pressures, modelled by the Darcy law, become quite high especially during the moisture evaporation stage (up to ten times the atmospheric value), their effects on the thermal response of the structure are completely negligible when structural changes are not modelled. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is also carried out to input parameters.