A multi-fuel management model for a community-level district heating system under multiple uncertainties

- A feasible two-stage stochastic programming method is improved.
- A multi-fuel management model is developed under multiple uncertainties.
- The fuel supply pattern for a district heating system can be obtained.
- The variation tendencies of the pollutant emissions are examined.
- Tradeoff analyses between system satisfaction degree and cost are carried out.

In this study, an interval two-stage double-stochastic single-sided fuzzy chance-constrained programming model is developed for supporting fuel management of a community-level district heating system (DHS) fed with both traditional fossil fuels and renewable biofuels under multiple uncertainties. The proposed model is based on the integration of interval parameter programming and single-sided fuzzy chance-constrained programming within an improved stochastic programming framework to tackle the uncertainties expressed as crisp intervals, fuzzy relationship, and probability distributions. Through transforming and solving the model, the related fuzzy and stochastic information can be effectively reflected in the generated solutions. A real fuel management case of a DHS located in Junpu New District of Dalian is utilized to demonstrate the model applicability. The obtained solutions provides an effective linkage in terms of both ''quality'' and ''quantity'' aspects for fuel management under various scenarios associated with multiple factors, and thus can help the decision makers to identify desired fuel allotment patterns. Moreover, this study is also useful for decision makers to address the other challenges (e.g. the imbalance between fuel supply and demand, the contradiction between air-pollution emission and environmental protection, as well as the tradeoff between the total heating cost and system satisfaction degree) generated in the fuel management processes.

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