Exploring the range of energy savings likely from energy efficiency retrofit measures in Ireland's residential sector

This paper estimates the potential energy savings in the Irish residential sector by 2020 due to the introduction of an ambitious retrofit programme. We estimate the technical energy savings potential of retrofit measures targeting energy efficiency of the space and water heating end uses of the 2011 stock of residential dwellings between 2012 and 2020. We build eight separate scenarios, varying the number of dwellings retrofitted and the depth of retrofit carried out in order to investigate the range of energy savings possible. In 2020 the estimated technical savings potential lies in the range from 1713 GWh to 10,817 GWh, but is more likely to fall within the lower end of this range, i.e. between 1700 and 4360 GWh. When rebound effects are taken into account this reduces further to 1100 GWh and 2800 GWh per annum. The purpose of this paper was to test the robustness of the NEEAP target savings for residential retrofit, i.e. 3000 GWh by 2020. We conclude that this target is technically feasible but very challenging and unlikely to be achieved based on progress to date. It will require a significant shift towards deeper retrofit measures compared to what has been achieved by previous schemes.