کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5476425 1521416 2017 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Interdependencies in security of electricity supply
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
وابستگی متقابل در تامین امنیت برق
کلمات کلیدی
امنیت تامین، برق، امنیت انرژی، آنالیز فاکتور متقابل،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی


- We study the interdependence between the dimensions of security of electricity supply.
- We use cross-impact analysis, and provide ways to visualise the interdependencies.
- We develop a tool to guide regulators and policymakers in selecting interventions.

The analysis of security of electricity supply (SoES) is particularly complex due to, among others, the liberalisation process and the increasing penetration of renewable energies. Larsen et al. [1] propose a framework based on twelve dimensions to evaluate SoES for a single jurisdiction. However, actions aimed at improving one dimension might impact others negatively, adversely affecting the overall system. Understanding how these dimensions are interrelated is thus a prerequisite for appropriate planning and resource allocation. We apply a Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) to these dimensions to determine the degree to which the different dimensions depend on each other. From this we derive an influence diagram to visualise the interdependencies and a scatter plot to categorise the dimensions as independent, driver, connector or outcome. Actions targeting the drivers or connectors are potentially the more effective ones a regulator can take, as the consequences will gradually ripple through the system. Having an integral view of the dimensions' interdependencies provides a better understanding of the higher-order changes an intervention may cause. This enables policymakers and regulators to identifying where in the system to intervene to achieve the desired effect with the least amount of resources and with as few undesirable side-effects as possible.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy - Volume 135, 15 September 2017, Pages 598-609
نویسندگان
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