Electric vehicles and India's low carbon passenger transport: a long-term co-benefits assessment

The findings show that: i) in the reference scenario, the EVs 2-wheelers will achieve a significant share by 2050. Electric 4-wheelers though would have a small share even in 2050; ii) EV push policies though lead to significant diffusion of electric 2- wheelers in India by 2030. These policies enhance diffusion of electric 4-wheelers only if financial incentives are sustained in the long-term, iii) the application of global carbon price on the Indian economy in the 2° C stabilization scenario increases competitiveness of EVs and results in near total share of electric 2-wheelers by 2030 and a sizable share of electric 4-wheelers by 2050. The high and rising carbon price in low carbon scenario cause deep decarbonisation of electricity and enables EVs to deliver deep cut in CO2 emissions. The results show asymmetry in the impacts of national and global policies on co-benefits from EV. The EV supply-push policies deliver moderate benefits vis-à-vis air pollution and energy security indicators but make insignificant contribution CO2 emissions reduction. On the other hand, the global carbon price in the global 2° C stabilization scenario delivers sizable co-benefits vis-à-vis all three indicators. This asymmetry reveal important policy insights: i) the policy sequencing is vital to gain co-benefits, ii) EV technology push policies are good for creating early domestic market for a clean vehicle technology but they may not deliver sizable co-benefits vis-à-vis CO2 emissions which are global externalities, and iii) implementing strong climate policies early would lead to EVs delivering high co-benefits, in case of India, vis-à-vis all three indicators.