Analysis of regional contributions to the national carbon intensity in China in different Five-Year Plan periods

Using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, we decomposed factors affecting the national carbon intensity (NCI) in China at a multi-regional level. A comparative analysis of regional contributions in different Five-Year Plan (5YP) periods revealed that the energy structure had inhibitory effects on NCI during the 9th and 10th 5YP periods, but had promoting effects during the 11th and start of the 12th 5YP periods. The energy structure had a strong inhibitory impact in eastern, north-eastern, and northern regions of China, but only a slight impact in central, northern, south-western, and north-western regions. Energy intensity is a major factor and had a strong inhibitory effect on NCI except during the 10th 5YP period. Energy intensity had a strong inhibitory effect in eastern and northern regions, but only a slight impact in north-western and southern regions, especially in Hainan, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Qinghai provinces. Overall, proportional output in China had a promoting effect on NCI, which indicates regional economic development was not coordinated. The combined effects of regional carbon intensity (RCI) and proportional output determined changes in NCI, and RCI had a strong effect on NCI. Regions with high proportional output and large carbon emissions had a great impact on NCI. The total effect in developed areas such as eastern, northern, and north-eastern regions was strongly inhibitory, while the impact was slight in relatively less developed areas such as northwestern and southern regions. Some policy implications arising from our study results are discussed.