Generalized sensitivity analysis study in basin and petroleum system modeling, case study on Piceance Basin, Colorado

Results show that the distance-based sensitivity analysis approach could achieve similar results with fewer model runs compared to the variance-based Sobol method. Model responses in spatial and temporal domain are impacted by different uncertain input parameters. Subtle relationship between input parameters and model response could also be identified. In particular an unexpected link between chemical kinetics and porosity versus depth behavior was uncovered. The knowledge obtained from sensitivity studies enhance the understanding of the complex geological processes and can benefit the modeling development and forecast capability. Though the sensitivity results are case-specific, the approach and workflow are generally applicable to other basins and earth sciences modeling studies.