Integration of agricultural and energy system models for biofuel assessment

• Biofuel expansion has coupled the agricultural and energy sectors.
• Integrated framework of agriculture and energy improves biofuel impact analysis.
• Ignoring the linkages can lead to overestimation of the impact of biofuels.
• Impacts on the environment are spatially varied and need to be considered.

This paper presents a coupled modeling framework to capture the dynamic linkages between agricultural and energy markets that have been enhanced through the expansion of biofuel production, as well as the environmental impacts resulting from this expansion. The framework incorporates the interactions between agricultural and energy markets at the macro-level, and an assessment of production practices and environmental impacts at the micro (field)-level. For macro-level analysis, we use two existing modeling frameworks: the CARD U.S. agricultural markets model and the MARKAL energy systems model. The integrated modeling of agricultural and energy markets will be useful in analyzing a range of scenarios regarding the role of biomass feedstocks from the agricultural sector in an expanding market for biomass-based fuels and energy. Moreover, by linking the macro-level analysis to the micro-scale (field-level) analysis, we can represent shifts in farming practices, average productivity, and costs of production, as well as the environmental consequences of farmers' decisions resulting from the expansion of biomass feedstock production.