Statistical polarization in greenhouse gas emissions: Theory and evidence

- We study the evolution of global polarization in GHG emissions.
- We consider the four main GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O and F-gases.
- We use the multidimensional polarization indices (Gigliarano and Mosler, 2009).
- We consider an endogenous grouping of countries (Aghevli and Mehran, 1981).
- Most of the polarization indices showed a slightly increasing pattern.

The current debate on climate change is over whether global warming can be limited in order to lessen its impacts. In this sense, evidence of a decrease in the statistical polarization in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could encourage countries to establish a stronger multilateral climate change agreement. Based on the interregional and intraregional components of the multivariate generalised entropy measures (Maasoumi, 1986), Gigliarano and Mosler (2009) proposed to study the statistical polarization concept from a multivariate view. In this paper, we apply this approach to study the evolution of such phenomenon in the global distribution of the main GHGs. The empirical analysis has been carried out for the time period 1990-2011, considering an endogenous grouping of countries (Aghevli and Mehran, 1981; Davies and Shorrocks, 1989). Most of the statistical polarization indices showed a slightly increasing pattern that was similar regardless of the number of groups considered. Finally, some policy implications are commented.

224