Why coastal upwelling is expected to increase along the western Iberian Peninsula over the next century?

- Comprehensive assessment of coastal upwelling using EURO-CORDEX simulations
- Projections suggest an intensification of coastal upwelling.
- The Azores High will drift northeastward and intensify during the 21st century.

Former studies about coastal upwelling along the Western Iberian Peninsula (WIP) using historical data indicated contradictory results, showing either its strengthening or reduction, while previous studies using Global Climate Models (GCMs) indicated that global warming is likely to intensify this phenomenon although predicting different rates and not justifying the patterns found. Taking advantage of the recent high spatial resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) projections from EURO-CORDEX project (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 8.5), detailed higher accuracy estimations of the spatio-temporal trends of Upwelling Index (UI) along the WIP coast were performed in this study, integrating the coastal mesoscale effects within the framework of climate change. Additionally, this research brings new insights about the origin of the WIP coastal upwelling intensification over the next century. These new projections clarified the upwelling strengthening rates predicted along the coast of the WIP from 2006 to 2099 revealing more prominent changes in the northern limit of the region (25-30 m3 s− 1 km− 1 per decade between 41.5 and 42.5°N). Trends observed at high latitudes of the region were found to be induced by the displacement of the Azores High, which will intensify (0.03 hPa per decade) and drift northeastward (10 km per decade) during the 21st century.

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