Critical loads of acidity for 90,000 lakes in northern Saskatchewan: A novel approach for mapping regional sensitivity to acidic deposition

Atmospheric emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) from large point sources are the primary concern for acidic deposition in western Canada, particularly in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) where prevailing winds may potentially carry SO2 over acid-sensitive lakes in northern Saskatchewan. A novel catchment-scale regression kriging approach was used to assess regional sensitivity and critical loads of acidity for the total lake population of northern Saskatchewan (89,947 lakes). Lake catchments were delineated using Thiessen polygons, and surface water chemistry was predicted for sensitivity indicators (calcium, pH, alkalinity, and acid neutralizing capacity). Critical loads were calculated with the steady state water chemistry model using regression-kriged base cations, sulphate, and dissolved organic carbon concentrations modelled from surface water observations (n > 800) and digital landscape-scale characteristics, e.g., climate, soil, vegetation, landcover, and geology maps. A large region (>13,726 km2) of two or more indicators of acid sensitivity (pH < 6 and acid neutralizing capacity, alkalinity, calcium < 50 μeq L−1) and low critical loads < 5 meq m−2 yr−1 were predicted on the Athabasca Basin. Exceedance of critical loads under 2006 modelled total sulphate deposition was predicted for 12% of the lakes (covering an area of 3742 km2), primarily located on the Athabasca Basin, within 100 km of the AOSR. There have been conflicting scientific reports of impacts from atmospheric emissions from the AOSR; the results of this study suggest that catchments in the Athabasca Basin within 100 km of the AOSR have received acidic deposition in excess of their critical loads and many of them may be at risk of ecosystem damage owing to their sensitivity.