Assessment for the impact of dust events on measles incidence in western China

Dust events affect human health in both drylands and downwind environments. In this study, we used county-level data during the period of 1965-2005 to assess the impact of dust events on measles incidence in Gansu province in Western China. We used Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to set up the cyclical regression model; in particular, we set the model to downwind direction for the typical cities in the Hexi Corridor as well as the capital city Lanzhou. The results showed that Spring measles incidence was the highest in the Hexi Corridor, where dust events occur the most frequently over Gansu province. Measles incidence declined on the pathway of dust storms from west to east due to the weakening of both intensity and duration in dust storms. Measles incidence was positively correlated with monthly wind speed and negatively correlated with rainfall amount, relative humidity, and air pressure. Measles incidence was significantly (p ≤ 0.01) positively correlated with daily coarse particles, e.g., TSP and PM10. According to the cyclical regression model, average monthly excess measles that is related to dust events was 39.1 (ranging from 17.3 to 87.6), 149.9 (ranging from 7.1 to 413.4), and 31.3 (ranging from 20.6 to 63.5) in Zhangye, Lanzhou, and Jiuquan, respectively.