کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5756240 1622550 2017 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Association between dengue fever incidence and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2014
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارتباط بین بروز تب دیگ و عوامل هواشناختی در گوانگژو، چین، 2005-2014
کلمات کلیدی
تب دنگی، تغییر آب و هوا، بیماری عفونی، آب و هوا، گوانگژو،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم محیط زیست بهداشت، سم شناسی و جهش زایی
چکیده انگلیسی
This study aims to (1) investigate the associations between climatic factors and dengue; and (2) identify the susceptible subgroups. De-identified daily dengue cases in Guangzhou for 2005-2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Weather data were downloaded from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to graphically demonstrate the three-dimensional temperature-dengue association. Generalised estimating equation models (GEE) with piecewise linear spline functions were used to quantify the temperature-dengue associations. Threshold values were estimated using a broken-stick model. Middle-aged and older people, people undertaking household duties, retirees, and those unemployed were at high risk of dengue. Reversed U-shaped non-linear associations were found between ambient temperature, relative humidity, extreme wind velocity, and dengue. The optimal maximum temperature (Tmax) range for dengue transmission in Guangzhou was 21.6-32.9 °C, and 11.2-23.7 °C for minimum temperature (Tmin). A 1 °C increase of Tmax and Tmin within these ranges was associated with 11.9% and 9.9% increase in dengue at lag0, respectively. Although lag effects of temperature were observed for up to 141 days for Tmax and 150 days for Tmin, the maximum lag effects were observed at 32 days and 39 days respectively. Average relative humidity was negatively associated with dengue when it exceeded 78.9%. Maximum wind velocity (>10.7 m/s) inhibited dengue transmission. Climatic factors had significant impacts on dengue in Guangzhou. Lag effects of temperature on dengue lasted the local whole epidemic season. To reduce the likely increasing dengue burden, more efforts are needed to strengthen the capacity building of public health systems.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Research - Volume 153, February 2017, Pages 17-26
نویسندگان
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