Adapting cities to sea level rise: A perspective from Chinese deltas

In recent years, intensifying waterlogging, salt water intrusion, wetland loss, and ecosystem degradation in Chinese delta cities and adjacent regions have generated the pressing need to create an urban form that is suited to both current and future climates incorporating sea level rise. However, adaptation planning uptake is slow. This is particularly unfortunate because patterns of urban form interact with mean sea level rise (MSLR) in ways that reduce or intensify its impact. There are currently two main barriers that are significant in arresting the implementation of adaptation planning with reference to the MSLR projections composed of geomorphologic MSLR projections and eustatic MSLR projections from global climate warming, and making a comprehensive risk assessment of MSLR projections. The present review shows recent progresses in mapping MSLR projections and their risk assessment approaches on Chinese delta cities, and then a perspective of adapting these cities to MSLR projections as following six aspects. 1) The geomorphologic MSLR projections are contributed by the natural tectonic subsidence projections and the MSLR projections by anthropogenic geomorphologic change. The former needs to be updated in a global framework. The latter is accumulated by land subsidence from underground water depletion, water level fall caused by the erosion of riverbeds from a sediment supply decline attributed to the construction of watershed dams, artificial sand excavation, water level raise by engineering projects including land reclamation, deep waterway regulation, and fresh water reservoirs. 2) Controlling MSLR projections by anthropogenic geomorphologic changes. 3) The IPCC AR5 RCPs MSLRs scenarios are expected to be projected to the local eustatic MSLR projections on the Chinese deltas. 4) The MSLR projections need to be matched to a local elevation datum. 5) Modeling approaches of regional river-sea numerical with semi-analytical hydrodynamics, estuarine channel network, system dynamics and adaptation points are perspective. 6) Adaptation planning to MSLR projections requires a comprehensive risk assessment of the risk of flood, fresh water supply shortage, coastal erosion, wetland loss, siltation of ports and waterway in Chinese delta cities and adjacent regions.