Predicting within-herd prevalence of infection with bovine leukemia virus using bulk-tank milk antibody levels

Herd level prevalence of BLV in the region was 90.8%. In the individual testing, 30.4% of cows were positive. True within-herd prevalences ranged from 0 to 94%. All linear regression models were able to predict the true within-herd prevalence of BLV reasonably well (R2 > 0.69). Predictions from the models were particularly accurate for low-to-medium spectrums of the BTM titers. In general, as a greater number of the four repeated BTM titers were incorporated in the models, narrower confidence intervals around the prediction lines were achieved. The model including all 4 BTM tests as the predictor had the best fit, although the models using 2 and 3 BTM tests provided similar results to 4 repeated tests. Therefore, testing two or three BTM samples with approximately two-month intervals would provide relatively precise estimates for the potential number of infected cows in a herd. The developed models in this study could be applied to control and eradication programs for BLV as cost-effective tools.