Subclinical carotid atherosclerosis and triglycerides predict the incidence of chronic kidney disease in the Japanese general population: Results from the Kyushu and Okinawa Population Study (KOPS)

- Carotid atherosclerosis predicted future incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD).
- Triglycerides were independently associated with the development of CKD.
- Other traditional risk factors were not independently related to the development of CKD.

Objective: To examine whether or not subclinical atherosclerosis independently predicts the incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the Japanese general population. Methods: This study is part of the Kyushu and Okinawa Population Study (KOPS), a survey of vascular events associated with lifestyle-related diseases. Participants who attended both baseline (2004-2007) and follow-up (2009-2012) examinations were eligible. The common carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) was assessed for each participant at baseline. The end point was the incidence of CKD, defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 during the follow-up of participants without CKD at baseline. Results: During the five-year follow-up, 224 of the 1824 participants (12.3%) who developed CKD had higher carotid IMT (0.74 ± 0.22 vs. 0.65 ± 0.14 mm, P < 0.001), higher triglycerides (1.6 ± 0.8 vs. 1.3 ± 0.7 mmol/L, P < 0.001), and lower high density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.5 ± 0.4 vs. 1.6 ± 0.4 mmol/L, P < 0.001) at baseline than those who did not. In logistic regression analysis adjusted for significant covariates, eGFR (Odds ratio [OR] 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-0.85, P < 0.001), carotid IMT (0.10 mm increase: OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04-1.33, P = 0.010), and triglycerides (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.06-1.73, P = 0.015) at baseline were independent predictors for the development of CKD. Conclusions: Higher carotid IMT and hypertriglyceridemia were independently associated with the development of CKD in the population studied.