Lower estimated GFR and higher albuminuria are associated with adverse kidney outcomes. A collaborative meta-analysis of general and high-risk population cohorts

Both a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria are known risk factors for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). To determine their joint contribution to ESRD and other kidney outcomes, we performed a meta-analysis of nine general population cohorts with 845,125 participants and an additional eight cohorts with 173,892 patients, the latter selected because of their high risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD). In the general population, the risk for ESRD was unrelated to eGFR at values between 75 and 105 ml/min per 1.73 m2 but increased exponentially at lower levels. Hazard ratios for eGFRs averaging 60, 45, and 15 were 4, 29, and 454, respectively, compared with an eGFR of 95, after adjustment for albuminuria and cardiovascular risk factors. Log albuminuria was linearly associated with log ESRD risk without thresholds. Adjusted hazard ratios at albumin-to-creatinine ratios of 30, 300, and 1000 mg/g were 5, 13, and 28, respectively, compared with an albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 5. Albuminuria and eGFR were associated with ESRD, without evidence for multiplicative interaction. Similar associations were found for acute kidney injury and progressive CKD. In high-risk cohorts, the findings were generally comparable. Thus, lower eGFR and higher albuminuria are risk factors for ESRD, acute kidney injury and progressive CKD in both general and high-risk populations, independent of each other and of cardiovascular risk factors.