Analysis of macrophyte indicator variation as a function of sampling, temporal, and stressor effects

Biological indicators that signal changes in lake condition are essential tools for guiding resource management decisions. Macrophyte-based indicators have traditionally been selected and evaluated in the context of nutrient-based stressors, although the need to evaluate indicators that are sensitive to climate stressors has been increasingly relevant. Moreover, indicators should ideally exhibit minimal sampling variation and have low natural temporal variation so there is high power to detect changes in the mean value over time. Eight macrophyte indicators were estimated in 23 Minnesota (USA) lakes using four years of repeated surveys to estimate sampling and temporal variation, response to development (phosphorus concentration) and climate stress (annual growing degree days), and power to detect significant change at various annual sampling intervals. Indicators included a macrophyte index of biotic integrity, floristic quality index, maximum depth of growth, total species richness, common species richness, mean richness, and frequency occurrence of rooted species and Chara sp. Overall, regression and smoothed additive models indicated significant relationships of indicators to total lake phosphorus and mean annual growing degree days. The macrophyte index of biotic integrity, floristic quality index, and the frequency rooted species had minimal sampling variation in this study, were responsive to development or climate stress, and had low annual variation (coefficients of variation 0.08, 0.10, and 0.19, respectively) resulting in high to moderate power (>50%) for detecting significant change over a 20 year period. Results from these analyses will facilitate the use of precise and powerful indicators that respond to stressors that are of concern for the management of freshwater glacial lakes.