Periods of converging carbon dioxide emissions from oil combustion in a pre-Kyoto context

This paper examines convergence of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions caused by oil combustion for a panel of 86 countries considering the importance of analyzing sub-periods separately. The investigation also points at the necessity of choosing a restricted global sample, which takes into account, for instance, that Eastern Bloc countries reacted differently to increasing world crude oil prices than the rest of the world. The analysis builds on examining the β-convergence hypothesis in a neoclassical growth model setting with additional control variables such as emissions from combustion of solid fuels. The results reveal evidence in support of unconditional β-convergence of CO2 emissions intensity due to oil combustion in the restricted sample for the sub-periods 1973-1979 and 1979-1991, while no evidence for convergence was found for the post-1991, pre-Kyoto period. We could not find support for coal substituting for oil, which suggests that the two types of fuels were related to different basic technologies.