Local climate variability and crop production in the central highlands of Ethiopia

The aim of this study was to understand the association of crop production with climate variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia. We used monthly rainfall and temperature data from 132 points each representing a pixel of 10×10 km, which are reconstructions based on station records and meteorological satellite observations. Production data of five major crops for the main cropping season, locally known as Meher, were collected for the period 2004-2013 for three districts (Baso Werana, Efratana Gidim and Menz Gera Meder) from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA). The production data are at the Enumeration Area (EA1) level and hence the best available dataset on crop production. Therefore, there is no published local scale study, as is attempted here, on local scale climate variability and crop production in the country insofar as it is known to the authors. Correlation analysis shows that crop production and cultivated area are positively correlated with rainfall, but negatively associated with maximum and minimum temperatures except for one of the districts, Basona Werana, where production of all crops are positively associated with the minimum temperature. Production of four out of five crops in Basona Werana and three out of five crops in both Efratana Gidim and Menz Gera Meder, showed declines over the period of study; regression results indicating rainfall to be the most important determinant of production levels. It is concluded that current climate variability has a significant influence on crop production in the area and any unfavorable change in the local climate in the future will have serious implications for household level food security. Efforts to adapt to the ongoing climate change should begin from tackling the current climate variability and take a climate risk management approach for adapting to the ongoing climate change.