Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries

► The burned area in the Mediterranean EU was modeled by using the Canadian fire weather index. ► Machine learning techniques gave better results than classical regression analysis. ► A Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines model (R2 0.75) was used for burned area projections in future weather conditions. ► In Mediterranean EU, 66% to 140% increases in burned areas are projected according to various scenarios.