Assessment of the effects of the Japanese shift to lead-free solders and its impact on material substitution and environmental emissions by a dynamic material flow analysis

► We model the life cycle flows for solder-containing metals in Japan. ► The Japanese shift to lead-free solders progresses rapidly for a decade. ► Substitution for lead in solders slows down during the late life cycle stages. ► The deceleration of substitution precludes a reduction in lead emissions to air.