Current status and prediction of major atmospheric emissions from coal-fired power plants in Shandong Province, China

- An emission inventory of coal-fired power plants in Shandong is updated to reflect 2012 data.
- SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and Hg are included in the targeted air pollutant emissions.
- The major contributors of coal-fired emissions in Shandong are analyzed.
- The future emissions are projected up until 2030 with three emission scenarios.
- Efficiency should be improved through technological progress and strict regulation.

Shandong is considered to be the top provincial emitter of air pollutants in China due to its large consumption of coal in the power sector and its dense distribution of coal-fired plants. To explore the atmospheric emissions of the coal-fired power sector in Shandong, an updated emission inventory of coal-fired power plants for the year 2012 in Shandong was developed. The inventory is based on the following parameters: coal quality, unit capacity and unit starting year, plant location, boiler type and control technologies. The total SO2, NOx, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mercury (Hg) emissions are estimated at 705.93 kt, 754.30 kt, 63.99 kt and 10.19 kt, respectively. Larger units have cleaner emissions than smaller ones. The coal-fired units (≥300 MW) are estimated to account for 35.87% of SO2, 43.24% of NOx, 47.74% of PM2.5 and 49.83% of Hg emissions, which is attributed primarily to the improved penetration of desulfurization, LNBs, denitration and dust-removing devices in larger units. The major regional contributors are southwestern cities, such as Jining, Liaocheng, Zibo and Linyi, and eastern cities, such as Yantai and Qindao. Under the high-efficiency control technology (HECT) scenario analysis, emission reductions of approximately 58.61% SO2, 80.63% NOx, 34.20% PM2.5 and 50.08% Hg could be achieved by 2030 compared with a 2012 baseline. This inventory demonstrates why it is important for policymakers and researchers to assess control measure effectiveness and to supply necessary input for regional policymaking and the management of the coal-fired power sector in Shandong.