A new dust transport approach to quantify anthropogenic sources of atmospheric PM10 deposition on lakes

Windblown dust simulations are one of the most uncertain types of atmospheric transport models. This study presents an integrated PM10 emission, transport and deposition model which has been validated using monitored data. This model characterizes the atmospheric phosphorus load focusing on the major local sources within the Lake Simcoe airshed including paved and unpaved roads, agricultural sources, construction sites and aggregate mining sources. This new approach substantially reduces uncertainty by providing improved estimates of the friction velocities than those developed previously. Modeling improvements were also made by generating and validating an hourly windfield using detailed meteorology, topography and land use data for the study area. The model was used to estimate dust emissions generated in the airshed and to simulate the long-range transport and deposition of PM10 to Lake Simcoe. The deposition results from the model were verified against observed bulk collector phosphorus concentration data for both wet and dry deposition. Bulk collector data from stations situated outside the airshed in a remote, undeveloped area were also compared to determine the background contribution from distant sources.