Alerts of forest disturbance from MODIS imagery

This paper reports the methodology and computational strategy for a forest cover disturbance alerting system. Analytical techniques from time series econometrics are applied to imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to detect temporal instability in vegetation indices. The characteristics from each MODIS pixel's spectral history are extracted and compared against historical data on forest cover loss to develop a geographically localized classification rule that can be applied across the humid tropical biome. The final output is a probability of forest disturbance for each 500 m pixel that is updated every 16 days. The primary objective is to provide high-confidence alerts of forest disturbance, while minimizing false positives. We find that the alerts serve this purpose exceedingly well in Pará, Brazil, with high probability alerts garnering a user accuracy of 98 percent over the training period and 93 percent after the training period (2000-2005) when compared against the PRODES deforestation data set, which is used to assess spatial accuracy. Implemented in Clojure and Java on the Hadoop distributed data processing platform, the algorithm is a fast, automated, and open source system for detecting forest disturbance. It is intended to be used in conjunction with higher-resolution imagery and data products that cannot be updated as quickly as MODIS-based data products. By highlighting hotspots of change, the algorithm and associated output can focus high-resolution data acquisition and aid in efforts to enforce local forest conservation efforts.