Modelling the sensitivity of agricultural systems to climate change and extreme climatic events

We conclude that increased climate variability associated with more frequent ECEs has impacts on agricultural systems over and above those of gradual climate change, which may have two main implications. First, climate change projections following RCP8.5 will progressively depress pasture yields and profitability of pasture-based dairy systems. Second, future modelling of climate change impacts on agricultural systems must adopt methodologies that account for the variability associated with ECEs in projected climate data, since the sensitivity of losses in production and profitability becomes greater with more frequent ECEs, even if gradual long-term changes in climate are accounted for.