Analytical model of sea level elevation during a storm: Support for coastal flood risk assessment associated with cyclone passage

Sea level oscillations are a result of continuous astronomic, oceanographic, and atmospheric interactions on different time and intensity scales. Thus, the collective action of forcing factors such as tide, wind, atmospheric pressure, and wave action may lead to elevated sea levels during cyclone events over the continental shelf, abruptly impacting adjacent coasts. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential risks of sea level rise and coastal flooding associated with the passage of cyclones in southern Brazil. An analytical model was developed based on extreme storm events from 1997 to 2008. The model identifies the impact of each forcing factor during temporary sea level rise. Through the development of a digital terrain model, it was possible to identify the areas most vulnerable to flooding by superimposing the terrain model onto calculated sea levels. During storm events, sea level elevations ranged from 2 to 5 m and show wind as the major forcing factor, followed by swells waves, astronomical tide and finally atmospheric pressure.