Consequences of a future climatic scenario for the anchovy fishery in the Alboran Sea (SW Mediterranean): A modeling study

- Climate change is going to affect the world's ocean characteristics in the next century.
- The Alboran Sea circulation will be altered in the future due to changes in water flux through the Strait of Gibraltar.
- Small Pelagic Fish stock in the NW Alboran Sea is tightly controlled by hydrographical regime.
- Changes in hydrology will force the future dynamics of the anchovy standing stock.
- Environmental changes and associated fishery future behavior are projected in a socioeconomic framework.

The Alboran basin is one of the most productive areas of the Mediterranean Sea and supports an anchovy fishery with a history of remarkably variable landings. Past and present anchovy recruitment levels are highly sensitive to changes in the strength and direction of the incoming jet of Atlantic waters, which modulate the hydrographic features of the basin. Here, we analyze plausible consequences for the anchovy fisheries in the region based on a projected physical scenario for the end of the century obtained using a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model. Our model predicts a substantial increase in horizontal water velocity and a negligible change in the associated biological production, which likely indicates reductions in anchovy stock, catches and revenues. Alternative policies are analyzed here for the economic scenario that is expected to emerge under future conditions of oceanographic features, pelagic ecosystem dynamics and anchovy landings in the Alboran Sea.