Impacts of climate change on fresh water content and sea surface height in the Beaufort Sea

The present study explores how fresh water content and sea surface height in the Beaufort Sea might be modified under warming-induced conditions due to climate change. We performed simulations from 1970 to 2069 with a coupled ice-ocean model (CIOM) implemented for the Arctic Ocean. The surface fields to drive CIOM were provided by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), in turn driven by the third-generation Canadian global climate model (CGCM3) outputs following the A1B climate change scenario. The simulated sea ice concentration in the entire Arctic and the fresh water content in the Beaufort Sea are shown to have consistent patterns to those seen in observations and reanalysis data. In terms of the possible future climate, the CIOM simulations suggest an 11% decrease per decade in ice volume, with the Arctic Ocean becoming largely ice free in the summers by about ∼2069. Moreover, due to increases in melting of sea ice and Ekman transport, there is an increasing trend in fresh water content (FWC) and sea surface height (SSH) in the Beaufort Sea. The increase is about 2 m for FWC and 6 cm for SSH from 1979 to 2069. Finally, the simulations also suggest that maximum increases in the FWC and SSH occur near the center of the Beaufort Gyre, where the maximum FWC and SSH are located.