Simulation model for sour cherry product lines

- The developed model simulates the sour cherry product lines from the growing sites to the trade channels.
- The different product lines can be compared concerning the market share, income, cost and benefit values.
- Analysis of future climate risks can be included.

Modelling and simulation are of high importance in agriculture and climate change research. This paper aims to simulate and analyse the sour cherry product lines in Hungary. The model presented below is suitable to analyse the market share, the cost and income relations as well as the relation structure of the sour cherry product lines. The vertical levels of the model (soil and climatic conditions, varieties, size of orchards, product type and trade channels) have individual values added from the aspect of the end product. Theoretically, all elements can be connected to any element of the next level, but there can be “prohibited contacts” because of professional, regulation or production practice reasons. The model makes possible to evaluate, compare and filter the different product lines, analyse the effects of the climate change or the use of different varieties, and thereby provides support for strategic planning and decision making.