کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6460736 1421816 2017 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Simulating the impacts of future land use change on soil erosion in the Kasilian watershed, Iran
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
شبیه سازی تاثیرات تغییر کاربری آینده در فرسایش خاک در حوزه آبخیز کاسلی، ایران
کلمات کلیدی
فرسایش خاک، بهینه سازی استفاده از زمین، تغییر کاربری زمین، تغییر آب و هوا، مهاجرت،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک جنگلداری
چکیده انگلیسی


- We empirically examine soil erosion scenarios using RUSLE.
- Markov Cellular Automata used to forecast land use pattern in 2030.
- We provide to policymakers with a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth.
- We simulate land use changes that inform policy makers on the future risks of land degradation.
- We indicate the need of appropriate land use policies in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.

Predicting soil erosion potential is important in watershed management. A rapidly growing Iranian population and climate change are expected to influence land use and soil sustainability. In recent years, northern Iran has experienced significant land use changes due to internal migration along the Caspian coast and conversion of forests and rangelands. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study is to forecast land use patterns and investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Loss Equation and Markov Cellular Automata. Data from 1981 to 2011 were used as a baseline to estimate changes that might occur in 2030. The results reveal that the mean erosion potential will increase 45% from the estimated 104.52 t ha−1 year−1 in the baseline period. Moreover, the results indicate that land use change from forest area to settlements will be the most significant factor in erosion induced by land use change, showing the highest correlation among erosional factors. Projecting land use change and its effect on soil erosion indicate that conversion may be unsustainable if change occurs on land that is not suited to the use. The method predicts soil erosion under different scenarios and provides policymakers a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth. Those results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting land use changes and urban sprawl in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Land Use Policy - Volume 67, September 2017, Pages 558-572
نویسندگان
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