Can early-life growth disruptions predict longevity? Testing the association between vertebral neural canal (VNC) size and age-at-death

This study tests the association of vertebral neural canal (VNC) size and age-at-death in a Portuguese skeletal collection from the 19th-20th century. If the plasticity and constraint model best explains this association, VNC size would be negatively related to mortality risk. If the predictive adaptive response (PAR) model is a better fit, no association can be inferred between VNC size and age-at-death. Ninety individuals were used in this study. The anteroposterior and transverse diameters of all vertebrae were measured. A Cox regression analysis was performed by sex to assess the effect of VNC size on age-at-death, after adjusting for the effects of year of birth and cause of death. Several measurements of VNC diameters have a statistically significant effect on age-at-death, but when the covariates were considered, this association became non-significant. The PAR model seems the best fit to explain the relation between VNC and age-at-death. Individuals who went through stressful events early in life were prepared to face a stressful environment later in life, allowing them to cope with adversity without affecting longevity. However, developmental plasticity may be buffered by maternal capital accumulated over several generations, and health hazards encountered throughout life can contribute to health outcomes and longevity.