Icy waters, hot tempers, and high stakes: Geopolitics and Geoeconomics of the Arctic

The Arctic, a vast and uninviting region that encompasses about six percent of the Earth's surface and an estimated 22% of the world's undiscovered fossil fuel resources, is rapidly becoming one of the critical geopolitical issues of our time. Much of its resource trove is located under the region's disputed international waters. Working from a region-centered perspective, combining old and new geopolitical theories, we examine whether the Arctic's special characteristics make circumpolar state cooperation more or less likely in an economic and politically sustainable fashion. We systematically assess the correlation between economic and military activities by putting together descriptive spatial and temporal data on new oil and gas projects, shipping routes and activity, icebreaker orders, submissions to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS), and different types of military activities of the five Arctic littoral states. We find substantial evidence of increased Arctic investment and trade transit followed by militarization. This allows us to claim that economic interests drive military activity in the Arctic rather than purely classical expansionist explanations.