Spatio-temporal patterns of intentional fires, social stress and socio-economic determinants: A case study of Malmö, Sweden

Since the end of the 1990s, the number of fires has increased dramatically in Malmö, a city in the southernmost part of Sweden. Between 1998 and 2009, the increase was 215%, and a large number of the fires were intentional. The aim of this paper is to deepen our understanding of the underlying causes of the spatial and spatio-temporal distribution of intentional fires in Malmö, and to analyse how different living conditions in Malmö sub-areas may determine the frequency of intentional fires. This paper׳s main contributions to the field is to operationalize theories of social stress into measurable variables and an index of living conditions (ILC), and to statistically and spatially analyse the underlying relationship between living conditions and intentional fires. One key conclusion is that the spatio-temporal patterns of intentional fires can be determined by different living conditions and different levels of exposure to socio-economic stressors. Another important finding is to emphasize the importance of analysing specific and local patterns of fire incidents and living conditions in order to utilize them in locally-adapted fire safety policy formulations and in implementing preventative measures.