Limitations in the predictive capability of pyrolysis models based on a calibrated semi-empirical approach

The study then considers an evaluation of the predictive capability of the six pyrolysis models through a series of numerical experiments, including several cone calorimeter tests and one vertical upward flame spread problem; these configurations feature conditions that are significantly different from the reference conditions used in the model calibration phase. It is found that predictions from the PVC pyrolysis models start to diverge for conditions that lie outside of the calibration range. Most notably, the models lead to conflicting results when applied to the flame spread problem. These results suggest that the domain of validity of semi-empirical pyrolysis models is limited to the conditions that were used during model calibration and that extrapolation to non-calibrated conditions may result in a significant loss of accuracy.