Characteristics of a suicide attempt predict who makes another attempt after hospital discharge: A decision-tree investigation

The year following discharge from psychiatric hospitalization is a high-risk period for suicidal behavior, particularly among patients initially hospitalized after a suicide attempt. Demographic and clinical correlates have been identified; however, characteristics of the initial attempt may provide insight into risk for subsequent attempts as well. This investigation examined whether individual or a combination of suicide attempt characteristics predicted future attempts. Two hundred and eighteen psychiatric inpatients from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study with a recent suicide attempt were administered items from the Suicide Intent Scale and followed one year after discharge. Sixty-nine (31.65%) made a subsequent attempt. Data were analyzed by a stepwise logistic regression, followed by an iterative receiver operator curve (IROC) analysis, a recursive partitioning classification tree. The cross-validated IROC, but not logistic regression, predicted subsequent suicide attempts. Furthermore, the IROC found that participants who made definite plans and underwent extensive preparation were at highest risk for subsequent attempts. These findings suggest that suicide attempt characteristics preceding psychiatric hospitalization can help identify patients at elevated risk for another attempt post-discharge.