کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6962451 1452268 2016 35 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Multi-scale land-use disaggregation modelling: Concept and application to EU countries
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل سازی تقسیم بندی اراضی چند مرحله ای: مفهوم و کاربرد در کشورهای عضو اتحادیه اروپا
کلمات کلیدی
مدل سازی بیزی، واحد فضایی همگن، پیش بینی مناطق استفاده از زمین، تجزیه فضایی، عدم قطعیت،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزار
چکیده انگلیسی
Changes of carbon stocks in agricultural soils, emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, and the delivery of ecosystem services of agricultural landscapes depend on combinations of land-use, livestock density, farming practices, climate and soil types. Many environmental processes are highly non-linear. If the analysis of the environmental impact is based on data at a relatively coarse-scale (e.g. farm, country, or large administrative regions), conclusions can be misleading. For an accurate assessment of agri-environmental indicators, data of agricultural activities and their dynamics are needed at high spatial resolution. In this paper, we develop and validate a spatial model for predicting the agricultural land-use areas within the homogenous spatial units (HSUs). For the EU-28 countries, we distinguish about 1.5 × 105 HSUs and we consider 30 possible land-uses to match with the classification used in the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. The comparison of model predictions with independent observations and with a simple rule-based approach at HSU level demonstrates that the predictions are generally accurate in more than 75 % of HSUs. The frequent crops or land-use are better predicted. For non-frequent crops and/or crops requiring specific cultivation conditions, the model needs further fine-tuning.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 82, August 2016, Pages 183-217
نویسندگان
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