کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6963282 | 1452281 | 2015 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The persistence of shocks in GDP and the estimation of the potential economic costs of climate change
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پایداری شوک در تولید ناخالص داخلی و برآورد هزینه های بالقوه اقتصادی تغییرات اقلیمی
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کلمات کلیدی
مدل ارزیابی یکپارچه، هزینه های اقتصادی تغییر آب و هوا، پایداری شوک، انطباق،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی کامپیوتر
نرم افزار
چکیده انگلیسی
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) typically ignore the impact climate change could have on economic growth. The damage functions of these models assume that climate change impacts have no persistence at all, affecting only the period when they occur. Persistence of shocks is a stylized fact of macroeconomic time series and it provides a mechanism that could justify larger losses from climate change than previously estimated. Given that the degree of persistence of climate impacts is unknown, we analyze the persistence of generic shocks in observed GDP series for different world regions and compare it to that of the leading IAMs. Under the working hypothesis of interpreting the direct impact of climate change as such shocks, the implications for growth are investigated for two RCP scenarios. The way of introducing climate shocks to GDP in most IAMs can be interpreted as assuming an autonomous, costless, large and effective reactive adaptation capacity.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 69, July 2015, Pages 155-165
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 69, July 2015, Pages 155-165
نویسندگان
Francisco Estrada, Richard S.J. Tol, Carlos Gay-GarcÃa,